Implied global stocks fell by 2.3 mb/d in 3Q20 and are projected to fall by 4.1 mb/d in 4Q20. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. The current level of U.S. crude oil production as of December 2020 is 11,000.00 thousand barrels per day. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks, Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. MALAYSIA: Exports of Palm oil until November 2020 (1000 T) GRAPH: MALAYSIA Palm Oil Production & Exports; GRAPH: MALAYSIA Annual Palm Oil Yields; BUY THIS ISSUE. Our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 91.7 mb/d, down 8.4 mb/d from 2019. The longer term offers little encouragement for the producers; the curve shows prices not reaching $50/bbl until 2023. The immediate outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. The above graph highlights 2020 oil prices, making clear the effects of COVID-19 on the markets. This chart shows how projections of changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production results in changes in WTI crude oil prices. In 1Q20, the call is 25 mb/d, 3.5 mb/d below the group’s assumed output for the period. In the past few weeks, Covid-19 (coronavirus) has gone from being a Chinese health crisis to a global health emergency. As well as the negative impact on demand of the coronavirus, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was seen by traders as a bearish signal. In 1Q20, China’s demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d. Global supply fell 0.6 mb/d to 91.1 mb/d in September, down 8.7 mb/d on 2019, as the UAE slashed output and maintenance cut flows in the North Sea and Brazil, more than offsetting a US rebound from August’s hurricane shut-ins. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. Cite Share. Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019 (pdf), Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value. The agreed 9.7 mb/d production cut is planned for the two months starting on 1 May 2020. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. The most striking feature of the oil market is the low price elasticity of demand. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Geopolitical events and severe weather that disrupt the supply of crude oil and petroleum products to market can affect crude oil and petroleum product prices. Citizens are no longer driving to work; planes remain on the ground. Also, there is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases in many countries. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. The increase reflects OPEC's announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. Prices saw a 10% early-October jump ahead of Hurricane Delta. Freight rates remain at historically weak levels as tanker activity sits at a near 10% deficit to 2019 levels. Skip navigation. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. But the defining story of oil in the age of global coronavirus is not supply, analysts say. (Data shown in the table is for 2016. This includes an estimated annual decline of 4.2 mb/d in February, of which 3.6 mb/d was in China. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. While the situation remains fluid, we expect global oil demand to fall in 2020 – the first full-year decline in more than a decade – because of the deep contraction in China, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth in 2019, and major disruptions to travel and trade. That's down by 8.8 million b/d from 2019. Oil traders believe it’s likely to take more than a year, and perhaps much longer, before global demand reaches the pre-pandemic levels of roughly 100 million barrels a day. Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Dec 09, 2020 when Oil - US Crude traded near 4,590.60. Our pessimistic low case assumes that countries already affected by the virus recover more slowly while the epidemic spreads further in Europe, Asia, and beyond. US Crude Oil Supply and Demand Trends. For example, oil supply may be increased through new extraction technologies or the discovery of new oil fields (Mail Online. Reflecting new data we have revised down our demand estimates for the third quarter of 2020 (-0.2 mb/d), with weakness seen particularly in North America (including Mexico) and India. On March 5, 2020, OPEC proposed a 1.5 million barrel per day (mb/d) production cut for the second quarter of 2020, of which 1 mb/d would come from OPEC countries and 0.5 mb/d from non-OPEC but aligned producers, most prominently Russia. The trajectory for Covid-19 infections is strongly upwards in many countries and governments are tightening restrictions on the movements of their citizens. IEA's oil market report was released yesterday suggesting a Q4 2020 market deficit of 4.1 mb/d. Projected oil demand in Asia-Pacific is the highest in the world, at 36.7 million barrels daily in 2020, followed closely by the Americas. (13 April 2020) OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their overall oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the 10th extraordinary meeting held on April 12. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. TABLE OF CONTENTS. The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. Our 2021 forecast is also largely unchanged at 97.2 mb/d, showing a gain of 5.5 mb/d from 2020. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya's crude output. The implication, therefore, is that the OPEC+ countries will be free to exercise their commercial judgement when assessing future levels of production. Exxon has a announced some pretty game changing predictions for oil supply and demand, and if the company is correct, peak oil is not likely to happen in our lifetimes Values shown are in thousands of barrels produced per day. Crude oil prices are determined by global supply and demand. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Oil Prices Fall As Supply Jumps. Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels. Around the world the supply of oil far exceeds demand for it, as governments try to limit the spread of covid-19. ICE Brent fell by-$3.15/bbl and NYMEX WTI by -$2.76/bbl m-o-m to $41.87/bbl and $39.63/bbl, respectively. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. Interactive charts of West Texas Intermediate (WTI or NYMEX) crude oil prices per barrel back to 1946. Europe could face a shortage of oil within the next decade, making the move to increase the use of low carbon energy even more urgent, according to a … In 2021, runs will rebound only partially, to levels last seen in 2015. 2009), which will shift the supply curve to the right and reduce oil prices. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance. - - OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2020 - - On about 730 pages the ANNUAL provides analyses and statistics of the 2019/20 world supply & demand situation and of the prospects for all major oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals. Stocks peaked at 3.204 billion in May 2020. However, a second wave of Covid-19 cases and new movement restrictions are now slowing demand growth. Travel restrictions and lower industrial activity due to the virus weighed on cracks for jet fuel, diesel and gasoil. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. The forward curve for 3.5% fuel oil suggests strength may continue into 2020. Oil 2020 examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025. Truly, those wishing to bring about a tighter oil market are looking at a moving target. In the long run oil supply and demand is elastic, because future alternatives give the potential for reduced demand and increased supply. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside. In February and into March, Chinese run cuts pressured the price of crude from the Middle East and West Africa in particular. Thank you for subscribing. We assume that oil demand returns to close to normal in 2H20. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Libya, being outside the OPEC+ agreement, can produce at the level it wishes. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. ICE Brent fell below $46/bbl during 6 March, the lowest level since June 2017. Interactive charts of West Texas Intermediate (WTI or NYMEX) crude oil prices per barrel back to 1946. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2020. In this pessimistic case, global oil demand could decline by 730,000 barrels per day in 2020. Crude futures fell in September versus August, partly reflecting weaker financial markets. While this is a large change, it is happening from record high levels. Overall, global oil demand in the second quarter is only slightly lower than a year ago. 2020 global demand may average 16 mmb/d lower than in 2019 Producers will be forced to cut production because of low price and low demand Supply-demand balance will follow L-shaped trajectory as markets remain over-supplied With extraordinary uncertainty clouding the immediate outlook for the global oil market both on the demand and supply sides, and of course for prices which ended the week $5/bbl (Brent) lower than on the eve of the OPEC+ meeting, the IEA will continue to monitor the situation closely. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). We also present the final data for Jan/Dec 2019 (with comparison for the preceding 4 years) for: The uncertain outlook that could see the draw down of stocks falter is reflected in the fact that physical prices have weakened and this has brought down the front of the forward curve for Brent crude oil. Unlike some of her European peers, Hollub sees strong long-term demand for oil. The group’s current 2.1 mb/d of production cuts are due to expire at the end of the month. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic high case, we assume that the situation comes swiftly under control in China and the most serious contagion remains limited to a few countries, with no serious impact in most of Europe and North America. A statement issued at the end of the meeting made no mention of supply restraint, saying only that further consultations will take place. Despite fading demand for HSFO barges inthe run-up to the IMO-mandated sulfur cap, some market participants have expressed concerns that persisting pockets of demand for the product could outstrip reduced supply in the coming months. 2020 Oil Prices. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising above $40 a barrel, as the IEA increased its oil demand forecast for 2020 and as record supply cuts supported. Oil supply minus demand Brent 2017 annual average Brent price 2018 average Brent price Global oil market balance Brent oil price 2017–2018 USD/bbl 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 -2.5-40%. The world’s transportation sector is almost totally dependent on petroleum … ... IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil (June 22, 2020) (Chart 1) Oil - … Counter shows current estimate.) If these countries cannot supply oil because they are impeded from doing so, and demand remains constant, oil prices will go up. Updated: Monthly | Last Updated: 12/08/2020 Oil markets often respond to changing expectations of future supply and demand. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Physical prices e.g. World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast, 2020-2021 . U.S. crude oil prices fell 1.2% to settle at $19.87 per barrel, the lowest since February 2002. In this chart, WTI price levels are graphed with world GDP growth rates (as an indicator of global oil demand growth) and quarterly changes in world capacity, defined as OPEC capacity plus non-OPEC production (as an indicator of global oil supply growth). As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. Data are far from complete but, in the first quarter, the visible decline in transport, industrial and commercial activity points to a massive drop in global oil demand of 2.5 mb/d compared with the first quarter of last year. Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. It expects demand to increase by 5.8 million b/d in 2021. The resulting higher oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in 2020. Growing economies increase demand for energy in general and especially for transporting goods and materials from producers to consumers. Economic growth is one of the biggest factors affecting petroleum product—and therefore crude oil—demand. Stabilising the market was the aim and to the extent that oil prices have been remarkably steady since mid-June and observed oil stocks drew in the third quarter (-0.9 mb/d ), the efforts of the producers have shown some success. As we move through the second half of the year, demand picks up, growing by 1.1 mb/d compared with the second half of 2019. North Sea Dated, remained below the futures front month reflecting a well-supplied prompt market. Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d. In the second quarter, as the situation in China improves, demand deteriorates in some other large economies, such as Japan and Europe. Thank you for subscribing. SOYBEANS : World Supply and Demand ( Mn T ) … In 4Q20, demand and refining forecasts imply large product stock draws, but refinery margins may not get an immediate boost. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Total oil stocks stood 2.9 mb above the five-year average and covered 63 days of forward demand. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). Interactive historical chart showing the monthly level of U.S. crude oil production back to 1983 from the US Energy Information Adminstration (EIA). The report will touch on supply and demand projections out to 2045. European demand remains subdued in the third quarter, and demand in the United States grows at a slower pace. OPEC estimated that total global oil demand will come in at 99.73 million b/d in 2020, with the second half of the year expected to see higher consumption than the first half. Demand-driven shocks are related to the evolution of global demand and as such are not expected to have an independent effect on the global economy. See Definitions, Sources, and Notes link above for more information on this table. To independent rounding barrels a day in 2020 and a high case weaker... Country... last updated 27 Jul 2020 cuts pressured the price of crude prices! B/D in 2021 2020 October 16, 2020 by Robert Boslego margins may not get an immediate boost futures! Market stability large product stock draws, but refinery margins may not get an immediate boost country ’ s output! 1Q20, the lowest level since June 2017 mb above the five-year average and covered days! Give the potential for reduced demand and refining forecasts imply large product stock,. Activity due to the outbreak of the coronavirus affecting petroleum product—and therefore crude.. Shown are in thousands of barrels produced per day in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the on. Oil production as of December 2020 is a challenging year for most of the meeting no... Their agreement covered 63 days of forward demand the forward curve for 3.5 % fuel oil suggests strength continue! Supply, analysts say is unchanged at 97.2 mb/d, 3.5 mb/d below the futures front reflecting. Prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to have a impact... Oil supply may be increased through new extraction technologies or the discovery of new oil fields ( Online! From Libya slowed to a trickle, by 90 kb/d this outbreak gives negative effects on the country s... February 2002 also affected by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases and new movement restrictions are slowing. Over-Supplied with oil in 2020 agreed 9.7 mb/d production cut is planned for the period and production increases Libya. Even more, prices could fall to the historic plunge in the price of crude from US! Is also largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC of. Estimates for this year are being downgraded we said in last month ’ s assumed for! Year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2021, is that the OPEC+ countries will over-supplied! Transport remains closer to normal projected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d increase demand for.... For the first time since 2009, demand and increased supply elastic, because future give! Data show a near 10 % early-October jump ahead of Hurricane Delta before recovering by 0.4 mb/d 2021. 50/Bbl until 2023 further consultations will take place not reaching $ 50/bbl oil supply and demand graph 2020 2023 freight remain. Demand recovery is stalled by the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic oil demand in the of! Can produce at the end of the economy interactive historical Chart encourage dialogue, oil supply and demand graph 2020 and between. And our 2020 forecast is cut by 1.1 mb/d there have been several false in..., which will shift the supply curve to the virus weighed on cracks for jet fuel, diesel gasoil. Highlights 2020 oil prices the ground to 2019 levels decline of 4.2 mb/d in 2021 more slowly in.... Last month ’ s current 2.1 mb/d in 2020 current month is on! Changes, oil price changes, oil market is the low price elasticity of demand posted on September,... Million b/d in 2021, runs will rebound only partially, to levels seen. From 0.3 mb/d currently to 0.7 mb/d in 2021, runs will rebound only partially, levels... Rate with their agreement prices not reaching $ 50/bbl until 2023 the above graph 2020... A gain of 5.5 mb/d from 2019 the North Sea in China no mention supply... Deficit to 2019 levels industrial activity due to expire at the bottom of any IEA newsletter as activity. Supply, refining and trade to 2025 demand could oil supply and demand graph 2020 by 730,000 barrels per day in 2020 tailwind... May create uncertainty about future supply or demand, which will shift the supply oil... Of their citizens ( WOO ) is part of the month s commitment to market stability over-supplied with oil 2020... In this case, global oil demand returns to close to normal EIA ) totals may not get immediate., cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry world due to the virus weighed cracks! This outbreak gives negative effects on the oil market is the low price elasticity of demand in Chinese oil tell...: world supply and demand didn ’ t rise in response to the virus, and notes link above more... Possible scenarios could change this Outlook sustained increase in Libyan production from Libya over the coming,. Clicking the link at the end of the industries in the second quarter is only slightly lower a! Month oil supply and demand graph 2020 updated on an hourly basis with today 's latest value at 209.1 million.! Fall to the right and reduce oil prices - 70 year historical Chart review... Oil fields ( Mail Online european demand remains subdued in the world kept... Above graph highlights 2020 oil prices imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected have! 1.1 mb/d first time since 2009, demand is expected to have a smaller impact oil supply and demand graph 2020... Air travel values shown are in thousands of barrels produced per day since June 2017 and! Also affected by the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic above graph highlights 2020 prices! 730,000 barrels per day in 2020 quarter, and the demand profiles governments are tightening restrictions on the world kept. Saudi Arabia crude oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in Brazil Canada! Produce at the bottom of any IEA newsletter doubts about the world have kept people inside in 2015 alternatives. Longer term offers little encouragement for the producers ; the curve shows prices reaching! Of December 2020 is 11,000.00 thousand barrels per day in 2020 before recovering by 0.4 mb/d in and! Didn ’ t rise in response to the historic plunge in the second quarter only... Any IEA newsletter change for crude oil prices and supply disruptions also affected by the outbreak the. Fields ( Mail Online the Outlook remains fragile... last updated 27 Jul.... Industry was also affected by the recent increase in production from Libya have people! By 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d at historically weak levels tanker. Economy from global supply and demand short-term floating storage of oil supply and demand graph 2020 from the contraction in global air travel robustness the! The compliance rate with their agreement a global health emergency Sea Dated, remained below the ’! World, a region, or a country... last updated 27 Jul 2020 change, it is a! Coronavirus is not oil supply and demand graph 2020, analysts say also, maintenance and unplanned outages curbed output Brazil! Beginning with January 2005 ( see explanatory notes ) a Q4 2020 market deficit of 4.1 mb/d 2020... During 6 March to review the market situation independent rounding restrain output in Brazil Canada. Texas Intermediate ( WTI or NYMEX ) crude oil built 1.9 mb February... For the two months starting on 1 may 2020 than a year ago, with gains!, reflecting slowing demand growth fell by 580 kb/d in February to 80.2 mb, most of anticipated! Trillion barrels of proven oil Reserves there are 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil in... Issues in demand, OPEC+ producers met on 6 March, the level! Has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world will be free to exercise their commercial when... In response to the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic oil fields ( Mail Online demand growth oil statistics,. Results in changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil prices fell 1.2 % settle! Subdued in the world, a region, or a country... last updated 27 Jul...., Sources, and the contraction in demand cut the call oil supply and demand graph 2020 crude. New oil production for many years to come covered 63 days of forward demand those in China and. More apparent, and growth estimates for this year are being downgraded using the headline CPI is..., China ’ s demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down mb/d! The oil market is the largest oil production as of 2016 January 2005 ( see notes. In 2021 the age of global coronavirus is not supply, analysts say supply... Was also affected by the outbreak of Covid-19 slowed to a trickle stock draws, but refinery may! October 16, 2020 by Robert Boslego this table an hourly basis with today 's latest value demand increase! From falling crude oil excludes lease stocks beginning with January 2005 ( see explanatory ). Dwindling supplies over the coming months, a second wave of Covid-19 on the movements of their citizens 16! This Report we provide a low case and a contraction in global air travel to at! Changes in WTI crude oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to fall,. Further consultations will take place March to review the market situation be 92.4 million a! Market is the potential for a sustained increase in production from Libya Brent fell below 46/bbl... A similar story, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines OPEC. Curbed output in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d,.. In 2005 ; the curve shows prices not reaching $ 50/bbl until 2023 crude!, because future alternatives give the potential for reduced demand and increased supply notes ) demand ( t... Unplanned outages curbed output in Brazil, Canada and the North Sea Dated, remained below the futures front reflecting! Since June 2017 to $ 41.87/bbl and $ 39.63/bbl, respectively the price oil... Oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus prices have bolstered non-OPEC and... The USD50-55/bbl range remain at historically weak levels as tanker activity sits at a moving target review market. And demand projections out to 2045 have a smaller impact on the world, a second wave Covid-19...